Reinhart D. Kühne教授学术报告会

2013-03-15 16:06:28 作者:zhangwy 来源: 浏览次数:0

复杂系统研究组2013315日(星期五,晚上7:30-9:30)学术报告会

 

地点:国家实验室大楼17-009教室

 

报告人:Reinhart D. Kühne教授

(合肥工业大学兼职教授,国家外专千人计划专家, 曾在德国宇航中心工作,任交通部主任

曾任德国斯图加特大学交通系主任,加州伯克利分校访问学者)

 

报告题目:灾害与风险评估的极值统计方法

 

 

   Disaster- and Risk Assessment from Extreme Value Statistics 

by Reinhart Kühne

 

Summary:

 

More than 50 years of daily water level recordings of the Danube river are the basis for precise water level fluctuation statistics, paving the way for a statistical analysis of natural disasters like floods or earth quakes. Starting with models for the dynamic time evolution of the characteristic variables including fluctuating forces the temporal development of the probability distribution for a certain water level height, a certain seismic elongation or another disaster variable is derived and compared with measurements. Applications to stock prices at the stock exchange or to traffic breakdowns and congestion formation as man made disasters are given as well. The calculation of the time when reaching a critical value for the first time (first passage time) turns out to be the key element for applying extreme value statistics to disasters. Besides this determination of the first passage time distribution, the maximum value distribution finally completes the investigations.
               IMG_0515

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